4/29 – The Chief’s “Severe Weather Threat” Monday Afternoon Forecast

Winds will begin to weaken dropping below advisory thresholds this afternoon. But there will still be gusts to 25mph at times and even higher winds up to 40mph associated with t-storms moving into the area from the west/SW with a low-end threat for severity.

All severe Wx modes will be possible and heavy rainfall will accompany as well. Rain rates along the whole line will be 2 to 4 inches per hour. Even though progressive for most areas, there could still be a quick 1 to 2 inches that could overwhelm low lying and poor drainage areas. Totals of 1 to 3 inches with locally higher amounts will be possible with this system. It will likely be a rainy day for most of the day for most of the area as a shield of light to moderate rain develops in the wake of this system and lingers into the early evening hours. As the gradient winds back off, it will cause the coastal flood advisory footprint to become smaller and wind relative headlines will begin to fall over the next 24 hours.

The scenario of fronts moving as far east as Dallas and stalling only to retrograde will continue. This doesn’t change a lot locally for much of the upcoming week, but there is a possibility that this front gets oriented east/west and stalls near our area by the end of the week. We will need to see how this plays out through the week but it could bring another good chance of rain to the area.