4/25 – The Chief’s “Approaching Cold Front” Monday Morning Forecast

An upper low-pressure in the northern part of the country will move across the Great Lakes and into Canada. This will drive a cold front south to central LA and MS late in the day. Showers and thunderstorms along/ahead of the boundary should be pushing into northwestern portions of the area late afternoon. A complete lack of shear means convection won’t be organized but modest instability could supports decent buoyancy which may produce a few storms with small hail. Compressional warming locally looks to increase high temps from yesterday. The front will slow its southward progression considerably this afternoon. It’ll still move through the area tonight, but fairly slowly. Without daytime heating, convection looks to be minimal with showers along and behind the boundary. Another disturbance will ride along the main front and track across the MS River Valley Tuesday, which is the final push that gets the front to the Gulf of Mexico. We could see a few showers along/south of I-10 between daybreak and noon, with rain done thereafter. Post frontal airmass moves in Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will knock down temps to around 80 degrees, which is pretty much normal for this time of year.

High-pressure will be the main feature impacting the forecast across the Gulf South on Thursday and Friday.  With this strong ridging in place, ample subsidence can be expected throughout the atmospheric column.  This will result in largely clear skies, lower humidity, and a larger than average diurnal range both days.  Highs will warm into the middle to upper 80s each afternoon and lows will cool into the 50s and lower 60s.

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