4/22 – Britt’s “Muggy” Friday Morning Forecast

An upper level ridge is building in and across the southeastern CONUS with the center passing across the CWA today.  As a result, onshore flow becomes well established and and 500mb heights rise. Those 2 changes will enhance moderating period that started a couple days ago. The deterministic NBM high forecast falls on the higher side of guidance each day this period. Forecast temps aren`t specifically record but getting within a few degrees depending on the day and location. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a record broken between today and Saturday.

An upper level trough currently on the western side of the Rockies will track northeast through the Central/Northern Plains Saturday to the northern Mississippi River Valley Sunday. As it does so, it`ll shove the ridge over the southeast towards the Atlantic Ocean. That puts the CWA on the western fringe of the subsidence provided by that high pressure. So while strong daytime heating persists and southeast flow continues, the atmosphere will attempt to squeeze out a few showers and thunderstorms. The biggest limiting factor will be moisture return. Medium range models depict very dry air aloft and PW`s that don`t support convection.