4/14 – The Chief’s “Weekend Severe Potential” Friday Afternoon Forecast
Things will be rather quiet today, with mostly sunny skies and drier conditions making for a nice day as high temperatures reach the mid-70s to low 80s. The quiet weather does not last long as our next weather systems are expected to move in by Saturday morning. The first round of convection will be caused by an upper level disturbance that shoots across Texas and moves into our area sometime early to late morning Saturday. All models seem to at least be in agreement on the timing of convection firing, even the models seem to agree. All models show storms firing in a different spot, from SW Mississippi to the coast. Knowing the discrepancies in the where side of things, did not stray from the guidance for rain/t-storm chances around 70-80% for the area.
Now regardless of where we see convection fire, there is a chance we see both some severe issues and flash flooding issues. The SPC has pushed the marginal risk of severe weather into our entire area and the slight risk into NW areas of our area. All threats will be on the table including damaging wind gusts, large hail, and though it doesn’t look to be the main threat tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Knowing all of this, some strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday morning through the evening.
Following the disturbance, a cold front will dive down into the area late Saturday into early Sunday, bringing a second round of showers and storms with it. The environment may support additional locally strong to severe thunderstorms with this round of convection, but the chances seem to be lower than with Saturday’s round. Following Sunday’s front a large area of high pressure will build in which will turn us dry for what looks like a few days, through mid-week, which will be welcomed after the active weekend.