4/10 – The Chief’s ” Severe Weather Threat” Wednesday Morning Forecast

A stable layer in the low-levels of the atmosphere is eroding, Which thus far has protected us so far, but this is currently leaving and in its place will be surface based instability that should strengthen with time this morning. All guidance brings the main surface low-pressure system NE into northern LA later this morning. As this occurs, it will cause frontogenesis supporting the line of storms that will race eastward taking advantage of a more volatile environment to the south of the surface low since areas to the north have been worked over.

The flooding potential is also an issue today, mainly over the northern half of the area and the flood watch area looks well placed. We should see showers/t-storms begin to develop very soon this morning ahead of the main line that moves through the area which should start between 7 and 8 am. The line of storms that will be rolling through is developing in a line from Laredo NE’ward at the time of this writing. This line is already showing some severe complex features along with low-level rotation and wind gusts to 37kt.

The line itself is speeding up and moving ENE at around 35-40kt. We will leave all headlines as is this morning. A cold front will move through the area this evening around or just after dark. The line of storms that moves ahead of this boundary will cool things down enough to help cause some stability, but the upper levels will remain divergent until the front moves through. A dry slot will move over the area by late tonight and early Thu then the back side of the surface low will reach us bringing low deck cloudy skies to the area for most of Thu with a final clearing Thursday evening.

Conditions look dry and nice for the weekend, and the next system that impacts the area looks to be toward the end of next week.