4/10 – The Chief’s “Cloudy & Mild” Monday Afternoon Forecast

An upper high pressure builds east rapidly, it will flatten an upper trough east of the Rockies and cause it to orient more west to east over time. The upper jet winds of the subtropical jet will also get involved to the front “south side” of this trough causing winds to become stronger on this side of the trough causing it to become progressive, which in this case causes it to move south.

Wednesday we will see this surface low meandering around or near the coast with a good moisture feed. Another weak surface low may develop to this low`s SE. This could set up a good dynamic fetch with strong SE and easterly winds along and up the eastern gulf into the north central gulf. This will cause water to pile along our shorelines and the fact that a coastal flood warning was issued for this is a great idea.We are also in a spring tide situation as well. And with these winds moving water onshore for a few to several days will cause us to move this to a coastal flood warning as there will be several places where water will be 2ft or better above critical thresholds. Normally with water 1 to 2 feet above normal levels would be mostly a nuisance but these levels will cause some action to keep property from being inundated.

Heavy rainfall could become an issue but this should stay over the gulf and coastal counties Tue and part of Wed and slowly begin to move inland later in the day Wed. A strong surge of moisture and warm front will rapidly move inland Wed and this is when the heavy rain comes into the picture for the central gulf coast.