4/1 – Payton’s Sunday Night Forecast

Post frontal airmass continues to keep the weather quiet on this Easter Sunday. Surface ridge centered in the western Atlantic extends across the southern Gulf Coast. This position is enhancing southeasterly flow and thus bringing moisture back to the region. Dewpoints rising into the mid/upper 50s will keep temps from falling as much overnight as previous nights. This warming trend will continue into Monday with highs in the low 80s for all locations except along the coastal regions which are still being influenced by cooler waters. Tuesday will be a continuation of Monday with the only significant difference in the weather being winds. The local pressure gradient will be tightening ridge remains in place south and east of the area while a surface trough/cold front approaching from the north. The entire area will be impacted by 15 to 25 mph winds from mid morning to late afternoon. This will set the stage for the upcoming stormy event Tuesday night.

Showers and thunderstorms along the backside of a cold front, which will bring the threat for moderate rainfall and possibly a few marginally severe thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Model soundings indicate a fairly limited potential as mid level temps are not quite cold enough for strong instability and winds aren`t strong enough for much shear. However, a few storms could produce strong downbursts and/or small hail. Models show decreasing threat from north to south as the line of storms moves through. A trough racing across the midsection of the country will bring the next chance for showers and storms on Saturday.