3/4 – The Chief’s “Severe & Heavy Rain Threat” Monday Afternoon Forecast

SEVERE & HEAVY RAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT…

Showers/t-storms will begin around midday with activity increasing this evening and overnight. The next thing would be one or two storms that could produce some large hail and damaging winds. Weak tornadic storms are the lowest risk but as usual, we won’t rule them out either. A strong disturbance will begin to push through Tuesday morning just before daylight. The main forcing with this should be over the gulf waters, but could be as far north as the coast. This feature will cause all of this to exit the area by noon Tuesday or shortly thereafter.

The disturbance moving through will not flush the area of dew points values. This means that fog could continue to be an issue through Thursday morning. A frontal system will cause a general increase in showers/t-storm coverage as the end of the week approaches, but where the heaviest rain sets up with this front will be in question for several more days. We are getting into the time of year that fronts stall over the area, so something like this would not be surprising.