3/30 – The Chief’s “Strong Winds/SEVERE THREAT” Wednesday Morning Forecast
THE AREA/STATE IS UNDER A MODERATE (LEVEL 4 OF 5) SEVERE POTENTIAL THROUGH TONIGHT…
A cold front to the west with a squall line in advance of the main activity continues to move east. The upper-level support east of the Rockies will move eastward then lift northeastward toward the Great Lakes later today. Low level flow will really ramp up this morning as a WIND ADVISORY is in effect with wind gust in excess of 50 mph will be possible through tonight.
Very strong low level and deep layer shear will be in place. While the primary storm mode is expected to be linear, there are some indications that it could be more of a mixed mode event. Considering the low and mid-level wind fields, could be a rather large swath of damaging winds with the convective line. Also, any breaks in the clouds could make favorable conditions for discrete tornadic development. Main threat timing would see line entering the western portion of the area in the early afternoon hours and crossing into Alabama prior to midnight. Aside from the severe threat, pressure gradient will be tight enough to produce rather strong gradient winds for much of the day. Wind gusts to 50 mph surely not out of the question.
With the quick movement of the expected squall line, rain amounts should be limited to 1-2 inches in most areas. May be some isolated issues where rain comes down too quick for drainage to handle, but see no need for a Flash Flood Watch at this time. Beyond the squall line, much quieter weather in place for Thursday and Friday as frontal boundary becomes stationary over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
