3/29 – Brittany’s “Chilly” Wednesday Night Forecast

Starting things out this evening glancing at radar illustrates echoes advancing ESE across portions of the CWA. Observations are far and few between reporting -RA but some of this is making it to the ground, especially within higher cores albeit most of it, especially lighter returns is virga. This is rather evident by looking at the recent HRRR sounding valid for late this afternoon illustrating a sufficient pocket of dry air between H9 and H7, topped with a distinct moist layer from 10kft to the upper tropopause. Going to keep the same idea going from the morning update by slightly increasing PoPs through the rest of this afternoon/evening before diminishing shortly after sunset (pushes offshore) and keep the mention of sprinkles for areas >10% / <14% which carries the patch across the area nicely in the weather grids. Not going to guarantee more than a light drizzle/shower with this activity as it will take more dynamic lift than a weakening mid-level impulse to squeeze out enough drops to wetbulb this dry layer, but as always will keep a watch for it. Additionally, did drop highs this afternoon to match trends as we are struggling to warm thanks to cloud cover. Introduced NBM 10th percentile for highs which matches obs rather well given the diurnal trend derived from MaxT`s.

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