3/16 – Rob Knight’s “Warm & Muggy” Tuesday Morning Forecast
A broad upper level high-pressure system is currently draped across much of the Gulf of Mexico and northern Caribbean. This area, generally along and north of the I10 corridor in LA will be the focus for rainfall today. Radar currently shows scattered showers streaking northeastward over SE LA towards Meridian Ms. There should be some northward shifting as the day progresses. Looking at model soundings, there may be enough instability for a few strong storms in SW Mississippi and adjacent LA parishes during the afternoon hours. Training could also lead to isolated areas of a few inches as we saw yesterday across NOLA.
An upper level low racing across the Desert Southwest today will track through the Texas Panhandle and northern Oklahoma Wednesday. A deepening surface low-pressure system will be moving right along that same path with a cold front extending to the Gulf of Mexico. During the day on Wednesday, models suggest t-storms will initiate around noon with the potential for severe thunderstorms through mid-evening, with all modes of severe weather possible. The quick moving front will then clear out the rain overnight with rain finished by sunrise Thursday.
The forecast after Wednesday night is relatively quiet. All of the main impacts will occur between now and Wednesday evening and then we will cool down and dry out.