3/16 – Brittany’s “Changes Ahead” Thursday Evening Forecast
All is quiet now as we await our next weather system. The upper trough is currently over the Dakotas with a weaker shortwave/jet type feature moving across the southern states. The surface low is up in MO with a front stretched back to the southwest. Locally, clouds will continue to increase tonight with temps increasing initially as the southerly return flow continues.
The line of showers and storms will track east overnight and be near the Atchafalaya River basin around 6-8AM. This timing has come into very good agreement through the day. The overall issue with getting severe weather tomorrow is the lift, which is well into the midwest with some “messy” shortwave lift over the area. There is also very little overlap between the “okay” lift and the “okay” shear/instability. Thunderstorms are most likely in the line before noon, with just scattered storms remaining in the showers as the line breaks up across SE LA. As always with the south, can`t rule out an isolated strong wind gust or a brief tornado but the chances are low.
Storm total rain also lowered with the lower thunderstorm chances and the fact the line won`t be solid as it moves through. Average amounts look to be around an inch with isolated higher amounts.
Behind the front, winds will be gusty as a tight pressure gradient remains between the upper low to the north and high pressure building over the Caribbean. Because the upper low is slow to move, this gradient will keep winds gusty at least through Sunday. Sustained winds around 20 knots with gusts of 25-30 MPH are possible Friday night through Sunday morning.