3/13 – Brittany’s “Cold” Monday Night Forecast

Surface high pressure and an upper level ridge dominate the weather for the next couple days. This results in cool, dry air bringing some relief to the warm trend we`ve been having, possibly even five to 10 degrees below normal and in the upper 30s to upper 40s for the low temps tonight and Tuesday night. Tomorrow should be a pretty day, sunny, a light breeze, and highs in the low 60s. A potential issue at night is the possibility of some late season frost; HOWEVER, with the low RH air believe moisture to produce the frost will be lacking. The surface high will control the winds, keeping them light and out of the north until just at the very end of the period. Then, as the high moves off to the east the winds will begin to veer toward the east.

Temperatures will begin moderating Wednesday as an upper ridge builds across the entire midsection of the country. Lows and highs will swing back to climo Wednesday and exceed it by several degrees Thursday into some of Friday. Models continue to show, now with some run to run consistency, that a much deeper and broader upper trough will track east right behind that late week ridge. This will send a strong cold front through the CWA Friday, bringing with it the potential for widespread rainfall. Coverage forecast is pretty much the same as previous forecast with looks to be quite similar to a slight uptick to nearly 90% as the main swath moves through. It appears that it`ll be a fairly dynamically driven system, no surprise with the broad scale of the trough, with ample shear in place as the line convection moves through. Cool air aloft will also increase instability in the 700mb and above layer. However, low level instability doesn`t look very impressive at all this time, with minimal to no cooler below moist adiabatic. Thus, severe potential is questionable. At the least will have numerous showers and thunderstorms with some potential for heavy rainfall. Post frontal airmass will build in behind the front Friday night into the weekend. Strong cold air advection will usher in temperatures 10+ degrees below normal with lows around 40 and highs struggling to even reach 60 degrees both Saturday and Sunday.