3/11 – Roob Knight’s “Severe Potential” Friday Morning Forecast

Today, an upper level disturbance/frontal boundary is expected to influence the area. Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible, mainly in the afternoon hours looking at the models. Southerly surface winds ahead of the storms will allow for warm air and moisture advection into the area. Strong to possibly severe storms will be possible along the MS coastal areas and east. The more favorable parameters for strong storms will be in place along the MS coast as the system moves through the area. Lightning and gusty winds will be possible inside of stronger storms, especially during the afternoon hours.

Another hazard worth noting is the trends in the models to show strong post-frontal gradient winds. General model consensus shows winds 20+ mph starting late Friday evening and running through Saturday. A wind advisory may be needed for this time period, so that will need to be monitored closely.

High-pressure will move in Saturday with clearing skies. Saturday night into Sunday, the setup looks to be favorable for radiational cooling, so temperatures will be lower than average Sunday morning. Lighter winds, clear skies, and cold air advection will allow for temperatures to overachieve guidance for the low temperatures. As a result, low temperatures on Sunday morning are forecast to be in the mid-20s to low 30s across the area.

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