The forecast today is hot and dry. The area of high-pressure has already connected with the ridge over the FL straights and is quickly sliding southeast and by this afternoon will likely be centered over portions of the Lower MS Valley and the eastern Gulf. Temperatures should touch the 90 degree mark inland and maybe a few isolated locations in the mid-90s.
Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday rain looks to return to the region. The ridge will continue to slide east while the mid-level low that’s currently over TX and northern Mexico helps to erode the western fringes of the ridge. This along with an initial surge of moisture will begin to lead to rain returning Tuesday. Best chance for rain should be closer to the coast likely associated with a seabreeze.
The forecast for the end of the work week calls for typical afternoon showers and thunderstorms however as we move into next weekend the forecast has many questions with respect to what evolves in the Gulf. Prior to this weekend moisture will be quite abundant with a trough in place across the region. This should allow for diurnal convection rather easily each day with showers and thunderstorms over the coastal waters at night and then more land based through the day.
As we look at the weekend and into the following work week we will be watching the evolution of the remnants of TS Amanda. There appears to be a larger consensus of model guidance and ensembles suggesting slow development over the Bay of Campeche this week and working slowly north into the central or western Gulf. If this system does develop and move north at the very least we will likely continue to see an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. At this time it is still way too early to focus on any one solution but at the least the greatest concern appears to be the threat of heavy rain as deep moisture surges north across the north-central Gulf.