03/02 – Brantly’s “Muggy” Monday Afternoon Forecast

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Today, scattered to numerous shower development will be possible in the afternoon and early evening. Regional radars are already showing these showers already tracking over the area. Expect this to continue throughout the day. At the same time, temperatures should be moderating with highs topping out in the mid-70s for most locations.

Moving into Tuesday, a disturbance will shift east while the trough to the north digs south into the midsection of the country. That scenario will provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm development all day over the local area. Overnight period could be conducive for fog development, more so that tonight.

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Likely the most impactful weather of the week will be coming on Wednesday. The upper low currently off the CA coast will track across Mexico Tuesday night and into/across central Texas on Wednesday. Models show a surface moving from Texas in the morning to right over southern Louisiana just after dark. That will put the southern half of the area in the warm sector. Along and south of the warm front is where there’s a Slight Risk for severe weather and excessive rainfall. Exactly what latitude the boundary falls will determine exactly who will be at risk and who won’t. Best guess right now is along all coastal Mississippi counties. Timing of the surface low puts the window of severe threat beginning well into the afternoon and carrying over into the evening hours from west to east across the area. All modes of severe weather and heavy rainfall will be possible. It will probably be “messy” day with embedded severe storms rather than clear cut supercells.

The area should be quickly clearing out before sunrise Thursday as the upper low races eastward. Skies my stay cloudy for much of the day, but the rain should be done. Temps will be slightly cooler than normal Thursday but quickly bounce back to and rise above normal Friday into the weekend.