7/12 – Rob’s Friday Morning “TS BARRY” Update Forecast

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Tropical storm Barry is currently located about 60 miles SSW of New Orleans moving to the NW at 5-7 mph. TS Barry will eventually make landfall on the southern Louisiana coastline. It is expected to track northward through the weekend across central Louisiana just west of Baton Rouge and New Orleans. While the official forecast does not explicitly indicate that Barry will become a hurricane before landfall, there is a significant chance it will do so between the 36 and 48 hour forecast points. The main threat for this system is heavy rainfall beginning early this into Sunday. Rainfall amounts will be especially high along and east of the storm track.

Forecasted rainfall amounts range from 5-15″ across the forecast area this weekend with significantly higher local amounts possible. In addition, intense rainfall bands can set up as the storm moves further northward, which can cause intense localized flooding and high rainfall rates. The strongest winds are expected to be 65 knots with higher gusting amounts, especially along the central Louisiana coastline.

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Here in south Mississippi I believe we will have winds much lower at 15-25 mph with periodic higher gusts. In addition to those main threats during the storm, there is a secondary threat of isolated tornadoes Friday into Saturday morning mainly to our west in SE’tern Louisiana. These tornadoes would be weak, but there is increasing confidence in the possibility for tornado development, especially ahead of this system. Overall, the main threats for this tropical system are heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and storm surge with a secondary threat for tornadoes ahead of the storm.