2/14 – Rob Knight’s “Valentines Day” Morning Forecast

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The region is now on the northwest side of a surface high, and this will result in a persistent south to southwest flow off the Gulf of Mexico. Temperatures will be well above normal through Saturday with highs in the 70s and lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Conditions do not look favorable for fog to develop tonight as winds remain somewhat elevated. However, if winds decrease to around 10 mph or less tomorrow night and Saturday night, some advection fog may develop. In terms of rain chances through Saturday night, no significant shortwave features are expected to pass through the region. The best chance for rain will occur on Saturday when a weak boundary passing well north of the region stalls over central Mississippi and north Louisiana. This boundary should serve as a focus for some isolated to widely scattered shower.

Throughout the first half of next week, a series of weak upper level disturbances will produce several rounds of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Temperatures will climb into the mid/upper 70s on Sunday, but should cool back into the 60s and lower 70s from Tuesday through Wednesday as a weak boundary stalls over the region.

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This weak boundary will serve as a focus for shower and thunderstorm development early next week with rain chances generally being higher across the northern half of the forecast area. The biggest concern on Tuesday will be the prospect of some locally heavy rainfall totals occurring near the boundary if storms track over the same locations in a short period of time.