2/19 – Payton’s Monday Afternoon Forecast

Surface high pressure that is offset to the east of the upper ridge expands all the way to the western Gulf of Mexico. Clockwise flow around this high will keep local win s onshore and moisture levels high. A few showers may develop this afternoon with daytime heating. Coverage and intensities should be minimal. Meanwhile, near record high temperatures will persist as the very warm/humid air mass continues to dominate the region.

Rain chances will increase considerably Wednesday through Thursday as a shortwave from the main upper trough to the west moves through the Central Plains and brings a cold front towards the area. This boundary is expected to stall across east Texas and northern Louisiana. Showers and storms will develop on both sides of the boundary, decreasing in coverage farther away from the centerline of the front. This means there will be much higher rain chances in
northwestern zones of the CWA compared to southeastern ones. Didn`t make many changes from the previous forecast during the Wed/Thu time frame.

The upper ridge to the east will build back slightly across the region Friday through Saturday morning. This will reduce rain chances back to around 20 percent. The main upper trough to the west will finally lift northeast and race across the midsection of the country this weekend. This will send a weaker front through the forecast area early Sunday. A few showers and thunderstorms should accompany the boundary.)