2/18 – Rob Knight’s “Presidents Day” Morning Forecast
Some light rain may fall today but should be held mainly south of the interstate, and should not amount to much though. A surface low-pressure will develop over the western gulf and lift north Tuesday bringing the cold front that moved through last night with it as a warm front. The weak surface low-pressure will continue northeast while the front to its south stays stationary near the area. This boundary will become quasi-stationary as disturbances move along it. Rainfall will be heaviest over the northwestern portion of the area. Basically there will be a fairly distinct precip gradient from northwest to southeast by Wednesday with rainfall totals for Tuesday through Wednesday night showing around 1 inch southeast to 3 inches northwest. Heavier totals will show up as the next several days unfold but the precip gradient should remain in roughly the same location.
As the line of showers/t-storms begin to move into the area late Tuesday night into Wed morning, some of the thunderstorms could become strong/severe with the main modes being damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
The numbers supporting this are not overly impressive but they are high enough to actually support the possibility. The SPC has a marginal risk of severe during this time frame as well.