2/18 – Payton’s Sunday Night Forecast

Warm temperatures will continue to be the rule across the area thanks to a pretty pronounced high pressure over the Atlantic. This ridge should keep us fairly dry from frontal boundaries for the next few days. Onshore flow around the high will keep moisture in the atmosphere and a few stray convective showers cannot be ruled out any day this week. Guidance still points at a period of wet weather for a large part of the country by mid-week and into the weekend. A front will approach and stall across the mid-south. This will bring a large area of the south some heavy rain. The high over the Atlantic should keep our area out of the heaviest rainfall, but the placement and the ultimate position of the frontal boundary will still need some tweaking over the next few days. There is a possibility that a few thunderstorms could occur in our area on Tuesday but the best instability begins to arrive Wednesday. These thunderstorms will be capable of producing some heavy rainfall. Wednesday looks to also be the start of a lengthy duration of heavy rainfall along the new frontal boundary that will develop from Texas to Oklahoma/Arkansas and Missouri. Again, daily rainfall chances will be elevated in the forecast due to the uncertainty of the placement of the stalled front. Overall expect spring-like conditions to prevail through the week thanks to that Atlantic ridge.