2/15 – The Chief’s “Changing Pattern” Thursday Morning Forecast

No significant changes in forecast though the weekend. An area of low-pressure along the W’tern Gulf will bring higher rain chances for the start of the weekend. All of the guidance continues to show a broad region of enhanced upper level forcing developing over the Gulf South on Friday and continue into Saturday.

As this low deepens, a warm frontal boundary will begin to form over the open Gulf waters off the coast of Louisiana Friday into Friday night. This front will serve as a focus for increased isentropic forcing over the cooler and more stable airmass residing north of the front and directly over the forecast area. Increasing cloud cover and rain chances can be expected throughout the day on Friday as isentropic lift intensifies.

Saturday morning will bring the highest rainfall potential across the region as the surface low tracks south of the area through the central GOMEX. The greatest forcing associated with this will be on the north and northwest side of the low and expected to remain just offshore over the northern Gulf waters. By Saturday afternoon and evening, the low will begin to pull to the east. Increasing suppression and dry air advection will lead to gradual clearing from the northwest to the southeast through Saturday night.

Sunday through the beginning of next week…the frontal system will be well off the east coast by Sunday morning. Northerly surface winds will help to advect cooler and drier air into the region. Generally, Sunday through the beginning of the week will be dry and cool.