2/10 – Rob’s “Unsettled Weather Pattern” Morning Forecast

A humid flow will sustain moisture advection into and through the area for eventual expansion of shower coverage as upper level flow favors increased lift over time. Sea fog will likely become induced during the afternoon hours over and near bodies of water. Temperatures will be on the warm side through Tuesday outside fogged in areas, with most locations reaching the mid-70s. Model guidance is still showing some subtle but significant differences in placing heavier rainfall in the pre-frontal warm sector.

The wet period of the short-term will be ongoing come Wednesday. Both model solutions agree on lifting the cut-off low northeast by Wednesday evening to push the cold front through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. In collaboration with WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook, we concur that the bulk of heavier rainfall should occur and remain north of the area. Meanwhile, Storm Prediction Center currently has northern portions of our area highlighted with a 30% chance of severe storms for Wednesday evening in association with the cold frontal passage. This appears to be overdone this far south, and will likely be altered in future updates given latest model trends. Much colder air moves into place post-frontal heading into the weekend as Canadian cold air builds southward.

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