12/17 – Payton’s Sunday Night Forecast

A dense fog advisory for all of South Mississippi as visibility continues to deteriorate tonight and into the morning. Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop overnight and into the morning, where there could be a few strong thunderstorms for the morning commute. The boundary and low pressure causing all of the activity will move little over the next 24 to 36 hours. The
wave of storms in the morning and afternoon will then push the boundary further north for Monday night
into Tuesday night, waiting for the main impulse to move through
early on Wednesday. Likely precip chances for much of the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
with this system. This is a southern stream system, so no real
cold air involved.

Temperatures will be much above normal through the short term. In
fact, current forecast temperatures may need to be raised in later
packages.

The good news in the extended forecast is that Thursday looks dry.
Models agree on this. After that, model forecast consistency has
been non-existent. Next upper low drops into the Four Corners
region Thursday and Friday, keeping southwest flow over the area.
Trough will pass to the north of the area Friday night or Saturday
with another good chance of precipitation at some point during
that period. The wild card will be the location of the cold air.
Previous model runs had brought the colder air into the CWA, but
both morning runs of the GFS and ECMWF now keep the area solidly in
the warmer air. Other members are as much as 15 degrees
above current forecasts for Saturday/Sunday. Blends that are
generally used in the extended are probably going to take a couple
runs to catch up, assuming current trends continue. Have
compromised with the neighboring offices using a blended solution,
but look for these numbers to go up if trends continue. Needless
to say, forecast confidence is very low to non-existent beyond
Thursday. Stay tuned as we get a better idea!