1/21 – Payton’s Sunday Night Forecast

Timing of the cold front and rain has slowed a little and it appears
the line will be coming in even a bit weaker than it looked
yesterday.  A Marginally (level 1 out of 5) severe risk will be present mainly across southern Mississippi from gusty winds. Instability will be limited higher shear is really shifting north of the area. The
rain may even come through as a broken line of showers at times.
Arrival of the cold front should be after midnight Monday Night even for the. Rain will be moving through the bulk of the forecast area in the 7 am to noon time frame, then finishing on
the MS coast in the early afternoon. Daytime heating may result in
a couple strong storms across the MS coast in the afternoon, but
that chance is low. Conditions will be warm and breezy Monday
morning for areas ahead of the front.

Going into the workweek cool, dry air will move in behind the front as surface high pressure
builds over the central Gulf Coast.
Nighttime lows area wide should remain above freezing and daytime
highs will be near 60.

There continues to be model agreement that a period of active
weather will quickly return for next weekend. The chance
for light rain will increase from the west during the day Friday,
then heavy rain and storms are possible along the central Gulf
Coast Friday night and Saturday. The location of heaviest
rain/storms is dependent on if and where a surface low may
forms… possibly in the northern Gulf or south Louisiana. A
strong pressure gradient would enhance winds as the low passes.
The rain would come to an end with a cold front crossing the area
early Sunday bringing in much cooler and drier air.