12/9 – Rob Knight’s “Afternoon Showers/T-Storms” Forecast

A warm front west will move east through the area this afternoon, providing for scattered showers and t-storms. Precip chances are generally in the 25-40% range this afternoon before quickly dropping off later in the evening. Friday will be dry and much warmer, with high temps looking to hit the low 80s for many areas of our area. As an upper level disturbance digs down across the central U.S, an associated cold front will form and move down towards our area. With the warm and moist air sitting out ahead of the front, this helps precip chances increase for the front. We may see some showers move in as early as Saturday morning, especially for NW parts of the area.

The cold front will continue to move down through our area during the day on Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue throughout the day, before drying out into the evening. Taking a look at sounding analysis for Saturday, we may have a chance for some strong to severe thunderstorms. This is something that will need to be watched over the next couple days as guidance has been a little back and forth on the severe potential. Forecast changes are to come over the next couple days as we continue to refine the forecast.

After the cold front moves through, high pressure will dominate the forecast for a few days. This drops relative humidity values. Surface flow will turn to the east on Sunday and eventually turn southeast through midweek. Temperatures turn cooler behind the front, with high temps trending in the low 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures into Sunday morning, may drop into the mid to upper 30s for some northern areas.

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