12/8 – Rob Knight’s “Wet Start” Wednesday Morning Forecast
Fog continues to be the say of the day. The dense fog advisory will remain through late morning, and there is the potential that some areas could have this fog linger into noon if cloud cover holds. A stalled front will continue with some showers over the area into the morning hours. A clap of thunder can’t be ruled out but the best potential for thunderstorms will be over the southern portion of the area and out into the gulf. As a deep upper disturbance swings into the northeast today this upper jet should move out over the gulf bringing any layer lifting with it along with rain chances for tonight. Another disturbance will move over the area Thursday bringing the opportunity of showers/t-storms back to the area and move out Thursday night. Friday could still have a foggy morning with a few showers around but for the most part thunderstorms are not going to be supported to a great extent over the next few days.
The overall pattern indicates that there is the potential for thunderstorms on Saturday evening. A positively tilted upper level disturbance and associated low-pressure will descend from Canada into the Gulf Coast. With the warm and moist air advection from the Gulf this does help increase rain chances to include t-storms. While thunderstorms are expected, guidance is indicating that overall instability for the event is pretty low. However the area could be in a low-end threat for severity including heavy rain.
After the front moves through Saturday, high pressure will begin to dominate the area again. Winds are expected to remain from the north, which helps drops min temps into the upper 30s and lower 40s.