12/30 – Rob Knight’s “VERY WARM” Hump-Day Morning Forecast

A disturbance digging over the Baja Peninsula will begin shifting east today as the surface high-pressure over the east coast will give way. Deep moisture continues to flow out of the gulf ahead of a cold front and this will provide a few isolated light showers for some areas through tonight. The main feature will be a cold front that should move through Thursday night into Friday morning. This time of year it’s hard to get high instability values but so far it’s looking good with this system. The timing looks to be late Thursday afternoon well into Thursday night.

The main threats will include heavy rain, strong straight line winds and isolated tornadoes.

The front should clear the area Friday morning and we may clear out for a bit but the upper support is not looking very progressive by that time and some over-running could occur by late Friday night.

Going into Saturday, a second upper disturbance will swing through the Lower Mississippi Valley. While a few showers will be possible mainly in coastal areas, it looks more likely to manifest as simply passing clouds across most of the region. It will also bring a colder/drier air mass into the local area.

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