12/29 – Brantly’s “Wet, Stormy End to 2020” Tuesday Night Forecast
Tonight should be fairly nice, as high pressure shifts east of us and onshore flow establishes. We can’t rule out a stray shower or two overnight tonight, but we will not see much in the way of local impacts. A few scattered showers may be possible during the afternoon and evening on Wednesday, but likely nothing of any real significance with temperatures well above normal into the lower and mid 70s.
Our main impactful concerns with forecast will primarily be on New Years Eve afternoon and overnight, with the potential for severe weather. Models are continuing the trend of slower and further west with the system on Thursday. So much so, that it currently appears our main threat period is likely to be Thursday afternoon and overnight New Years Eve. The Storm Prediction Center currently has South Mississippi under a Slight Risk, or threat level 2 out of 5, for severe weather on Thursday and Thursday night.
Thunderstorms that develop ahead of the cold front across the moist sector could have a wind damage and tornado potential. During the late afternoon Thursday, the most favorable area would be in far southeast Louisiana. The storm threat is forecast to shift eastward across southern Mississippi and southern Alabama during the evening and overnight period. Models suggest the possibility of a strong thunderstorm line pushing through the late evening hours. This line will likely be associated with a continued wind damage and tornado threat during the overnight period.
New Year’s Day the cold front should push through no later than daybreak, with cooler air, but not terribly cold. Temperatures on Friday will be closer to normal before a secondary push of cooler air works through the area on Saturday. Cool and dry air associated with high pressure will control the forecast through the first days of next week.