12/28 – The Chief’s “Welcome Sunshine” Thursday Morning Forecast

The biggest forecast challenge in the short term is the temperature forecast and the threat of a light freeze for many areas that may have not seen one yet this season. Confidence is not as high as previous forecasts on this potential in the southern portions of the area and we will get into that.

A closed low pressure system currently sitting over the Mid-Mississippi Valley will work to the east slowly for the next 24 to 48 hrs. This low has already helped send one cold front through the area with cooler and drier air moving in as we speak but a stronger surge of colder air associated with the yesterday’s, front which is now east of the area.

This is a pretty good airmass moving in but how cold will we get is the question tonight and then what happens Friday night. First let’s get this out of the way, it is not an Arctic airmass but it currently is moving over snow cover and the snow line as of yesterday afternoon appeared to be all the way down to I-70. Friday night is the other question and looking at this we could be on the opposite side this time. High pressure will finally be more firmly entrenched and winds to likely decouple. Skies should also be clear and everything is screaming a much more favorable radiational cooling night with the typical colder second night low.

Temperatures moderate Saturday and Saturday night as the northwest flow we begin the day under quickly breaks down with zonal flow back over the area Sunday.