12/28 – Rob Knight’s “Warm & Humid” Tuesday Morning Forecast
Unseasonably warm weather will continue for the remainder of the workweek. There will be several rounds of potential showers and thunderstorms, with a non-zero threat of severe weather each day. Today’s concern will be associated with a disturbance moving northward through the Gulf of Mexico, which is expected to move across the area late this afternoon and evening. Round 2 will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening as another disturbance rotates through the Great Plains into the southern Great Lakes. There is some potential that the Wednesday night threat could linger into Thursday morning east of Interstate 55 before high-pressure builds back into the area.
The forecast doesn’t get any easier starting the New Year. The confident part of the forecast, a potent disturbance will move through the Lower MS Valley this weekend and it will usher in a strong cold front finally.
The high-pressure that has been dominating the Gulf region much of December was suppressed to the east and southeast but on Friday will again build over the southeastern Gulf bringing WSW flow across the region and increasing subsidence. This should help to keep rain chances on the lower end but given the amount of moisture in place, we likely won’t be completely dry. There should be clouds over the area and possibly quite a bit through most of the day. That will help offset some of the daytime heating, combine that with some isolated to widely scattered showers and it should help keep highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. New Year’s Eve night should be rather quiet with possibly some lingering showers but nothing to really impact your ringing in the new year. New Year’s day should start quiet but this is when the conditions begin to deteriorate. Rain chances will increase through the day as SW flow increases across the region and the ridge gets suppressed once again.