12/27 – The Chief’s “Dry Frontal Passage” Tuesday Morning Forecast

A weak disturbance will be passing over the area within the next few hours, but not causing much noise as it comes through. It will delay our big warm up of temperatures, but with a pretty big lack in moisture this will be a dry front outside of the small chance of a stray shower in the outer Gulf waters. Surface high pressure will build into the region behind this front today bringing mostly sunny skies and calm winds.

Heading into the late evening and overnight hours, surface high pressure slides to the east and the low level winds will shift onshore helping to bring moisture back into the area. Would not be surprised to see some radiational fog Wednesday morning given the moisture advection, light wind field, and mostly clear skies. Dew-points will rapidly start increasing heading into Wednesday morning, reaching the mid-40s by mid-morning and the low 50s by mid-day. Temperatures shoot into the mid-60s, even low 70s in some areas Wednesday afternoon. A few models are showing some sea fog developing Wednesday night, however pulling some soundings shows the wind field not necessarily agreeing with this.

Another disturbance will begin to dig down through the southwest U.S on Wednesday, shifting eastward and approaching our area on Thursday. We’ll see deep layer southerly flow ahead of this trough axis, bringing in additional moisture and warm air. This shows in the high temperatures forecast for Thursday afternoon in the low to mid 70s for the whole area. Precip chances will begin to increase Friday morning associated with a prefrontal trough axis out ahead of the main trough. Model are still showing this area of showers and thunderstorms stalling over the area late Friday and into Saturday which would bring the increase of a flash flooding risk. This will bring the potential for heavy rainfall to the area.

Drier and more stable air will push into the region from the west following convection as the trough axis pulls up northeast, into the Great lakes region. This will bring us dry conditions to end the weekend, with warm temperatures sticking around.

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