12/22 – Rob Knight’s “Big Changes Ahead” Tuesday Morning Forecast
High pressure will gradually slide eastward through tonight ahead of our next frontal system. As the high-pressure shifts eastward, expect winds to veer to the E/SE, leading to a moderating trend. Lows tonight are expected to be around 10 degrees warmer. By Wednesday, the upper-level disturbance will dig into Texas, and forcing a surface cold front eastward ahead of it. The front should push through the local area during the late afternoon through the first part of the overnight hours. Expect a gradual increase in rain chances during the afternoon Wednesday, with 80 percent or higher during the evening/overnight.
Regarding impacts along the front… Instability looks to be in short supply as the front comes through, but think there should be enough lift along the boundary itself to result in a few thunderstorms. Severe weather doesn’t look like too much of an issue given the very limited instability and the fact the surface low will be so far removed to the north. Cold air comes rushing in behind the front for a chilly Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Highs on Thursday and Friday will struggle to reach the 50 degree mark in some places. It will feel VERY COLD especially Thursday when the brisk wind is factored in as well. Wind chills through much of the day will be in the mid-30s to mid 40s depending on location.
As winds die down Thursday night, temperatures will plummet leading to a literally freezing Christmas morning for the area. Lows are currently forecast to drop into the upper 20s north of the interstate and into the low-30s south. All in all, it should be our coldest Christmas in several years, possibly back to about 2013.