12/13 – The Chief’s “Level 3 SEVERE THREAT Ahead” Tuesday Morning Forecast
A very complex forecast through the period, with a potent storm system starting to develop across the high plains just east of the front range of the Rockies. The surface low is forecast to move N/NNE with time into the Cornbelt region. A surface front is forecast to move into the ArkLaTex region by later this evening and overnight tonight. Eventually a strong impulse will grab the front and send it through our region Wednesday and into early Thursday.
-Today through Wednesday Night-
Early today should be mostly dry across the region with residual high pressure still over the area early…but that doesn’t last too long as the flow shifts to a more active SW flow later today. At the surface, a strong southerly flow takes shape as surface high pressure begins to move off the Mid Atlantic coast. The fetch over the Gulf of Mexico will push a moisture rich low level air mass into the region in advance of the upcoming storm system.
The surface front or band of convection expected with the front will begin to enter our far western region around midnight (give or take a couple of hours). Convection along or just ahead of the front, this feature should arrive in our west again around midnight or so and ever so slowly move eastward through the day on Wednesday. The best potential for heavy rain looks to be in the northwestern portion of the area where several hours of training storms have the potential to drop a significant amount of rainfall in a short period of time. With the slowing or stalling lasting around 12 hours or so the front/convection should begin to start moving eastward through the remainder of the area Wednesday morning and into the afternoon hours. WPC has outlined a slight risk of Excessive Rainfall and a Flood Watch for Flash Flooding may be needed eventually.
As for severe weather Wednesday, the band of convection will be moving into a favorable area with remain favorable on Wednesday for all severe hazards including strong damaging winds and tornadoes across the region.