12/12 – Rob Knight’s Warming Forecast

An area of high-pressure has shifted to our east as the warmer temps will begin moving into the viewing area. It will take a while for this airmass to modify as the flow from the Gulf begins this morning. The onshore low level flow should finally start producing lower clouds, and possibly some rain, after midnight tonight. The Pacific Northwest system will be digging into the area Thursday and through the Mississippi gulf coast into Friday. There’s no doubt it is going to rain Thursday afternoon and evening, but the question is how much thunder will be associated with this system. Instability is rather lacking, however, if instability does reach land, a few t-storms could become SEVERE. The SPC maintains a Marginal Risk across the area for Thursday afternoon and evening.

This system should also be a fairly proficient rain guidance suggesting 1.5 to 2 inches of rain across primarily the eastern half of the area, where there will be a Marginal Risk of Excessive rainfall.

We should be able to tolerate that much rainfall, so no Flash Flood Watches planned at this time. Rainfall will end Friday morning, however, it’s going to take until sometime early Saturday for the upper low to move east of the area. Expect Friday and probably Friday night, to be rather cloudy with patchy light rain or drizzle possible. Any clearing is likely to hold off until sometime on Saturday, probably late afternoon.

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