12/11 – Rob Knight’s “Warm” Friday Morning Forecast

Cloud coverage will increase today as the first in a series of fast moving fronts slide through the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday night into Saturday. Given the lack of instability, shower activity will be main form of convection that occurs. If there are any thunderstorms, they will be very weak and very isolated. This first front will sweep through the region by Saturday night with clearing skies and cooler temperatures expected.The second boundary will dive through the region on Sunday. This system will be highly

dynamic with a large amount of forcing and increased moisture overspreading the area on Sunday. These parameters will support the development of scattered showers and t-storm Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. However, instability will still be rather limited. At best, some scattered thunderstorms may develop across parts of Southeast Louisiana mainly south of the I-10 corridor Sunday afternoon then move into south Mississippi Sunday late afternoon/evening.

A cooler airmass will move in behind this system, and temperatures are expected to fall back below normal for Monday with highs in the 50s and lows in the lower 40s. This break in the weather will be short-lived as another fast moving disturbance pushes out of the Rockies and across the Mississippi Valley Tuesday into Tuesday night. A surge of low level moisture from the central Gulf will support cloud and shower development from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. Instability values will be limited, so thunderstorm development is not anticipated with this system.

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