12/10 – Brantly’s “Foggy Morning, Mostly Sunny Afternoon” Thursday Forecast

An area of low pressure is forecast to lift northeastward across the Upper Midwest and toward the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday, while an attached cold front gradually pushes across our forecast area sometime Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. A narrow zone of moisture ahead of the front will bring the next chance of rain showers to our region Saturday, possibly lasting into Saturday evening dependent on timing of frontal passage. Instability will this system still looks very minimal, so severe weather potential still looks very low. Lows Friday night will be in the mid and upper 50s inland to low 60s along the coast. Cooler Saturday night with lows in the low to mid 40s inland to mid 50s along the coast. Highs on Saturday will be dependent on frontal timing with mid/upper 60s to low 70s.

The active weather pattern will continue through next week. On the heels of the system moving through the region on Saturday, a secondary shortwave will barrel through the trough aloft and slide into the Deep South late on Sunday. As quickly as the shortwave pivots into the region, it exits the region to the east very quickly by late Monday morning. A weak ridge aloft builds into the eastern half of the U.S. on Tuesday in the wake of the first system. Another shortwave aloft dives into the Plains on Tuesday and moves into the region through the day on Wednesday, but there remains a decent spread in the guidance with regards to the evolution and timing of the mid-week system.

Light westerly winds will turn southerly tonight and increase by Friday night. Moderate to occasionally strong onshore flow will develop ahead of an approaching cold front Friday night into Saturday. Behind the front, flow will shift to offshore and increase heading into the beginning of next week. Small craft exercise caution will likely be needed over the weekend for all bay and offshore marine areas. Otherwise, the potential for a Small Craft Advisory may be needed for the offshore Gulf waters only if trends continue for the offshore flow behind the front.

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