11/7 – Rob’s “Disruptive Weather” Tuesday Morning Forecast

The region continues to be under a ZONAL FLOW…meaning that the cold air will stay north with war/humid conditions along the Gulf Coast…until Wednesday. A cold front that is located from northern Mississippi to northeast Texas will move very slowly southeast today. The front will then slow to a crawl or even stall for a few hours from central Mississippi to central Louisiana by this evening. A short wave trough currently located over the Pacific northwest will move southeast today and tonight adding energy to the zonal flow causing it to buckle and kick the cold front through the area overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. As the front moves through, the cool air will be shallow as the upper jet remains over the area causing broad lift helping to produce a good bit of shower activity. There is a very small window of observing a strike or two of thunder from an elevated thunderstorm…but this will mainly be a RAIN EVENT. Rain should move east during the day Thursday with a stacked high moving into the area drying things out possibly through Saturday.

Another cold front looks to move into the area Sunday into Monday. This trend usually leads to a portion of the area staying warm and humid and the remaining portion cool with some overrunning. But models are also retrograding the high that moves to the east coast by the start of next week. So even though the front pivots, it may also get forced through the area from east to west by Monday into Tuesday.