11/3 – Rob’s “Big Changes Ahead” Thursday Afternoon Forecast

A moist air from the gulf continues to filter in this afternoon which could cause some fog issues tomorrow morning. Showers are expected to come in Friday afternoon although some of the most western parts of the region might have it a little earlier than that.

Another weekend cold front is expected coming in Friday afternoon/evening into Saturday with areas west of I-55 getting the rain first. While the best environmental conditions for severe weather is currently forecasted to remain to our west (Texas/W Louisiana), definitely cannot rule out some low end severe threat. Timing issues for having all the right ingredients also look like to be a limiting factor as well. So as of right now, the western half of the region would be the best chance for any severe weather as that area is a little closer to the better dynamics.

Heavy rainfall is still a concern as moisture values look to be very high for this time of year (near to possibly exceeding the daily max on SPC`s sounding climatology page for this Saturday).The front stalling on top of highly efficient rainmaking showers/storms could lead to areas getting high rainfall amounts. On the other hand, weak forcing and prolonged dry conditions should help limit flash flooding threats. Past this weekend, right now it looks to remain dry but it could very widely depend on what ends up happening to a possible subtropical wave near the Caribbean. For now, we will continue to monitor.

Categories: Weather Headlines