11/29 – The Chief’s “Afternoon/Overnight SEVERE THREAT” Tuesday Morning Forecast
The latest trends in models have increased confidence in the risk for severe weather to our area and there is now a slight risk for severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, tornadoes and hail along and north of the I-10/12 corridor this afternoon through the overnight hours. There is a slight risk for excessive rainfall across southern Mississippi and a marginal risk further south across southeast Louisiana due to the rich moisture these storms will be fueled by which will allow rainfall rates of 1-3″ an hour that could result in localized flooding.
By mid-morning a warm front will move rapidly northward leaving a wide open warm sector across much of southern Mississippi. Scattered to numerous showers/t-storms will affect the area with rain ate of 1-3” per hour. A second round of t-storm activity more closely associated with the frontal boundary is expected later tonight into the morning on Wednesday which could also still carry a severe weather threat, though much more limited in nature. This second round of storms will primarily bring damaging wind threat as they move through overnight. The caveat with this round being the uncertainty of how the warm sector convection earlier in the day modifies the environment these storms will pass through.
Excessive rainfall will also be possible this afternoon through Wednesday morning as these storms track across the area given the rich moisture atmosphere will bring the threat for locally heavy rainfall will be highest in southern MS.