11/24 – Rob knight’s “Happy Thanksgiving” Threat For Heavy Rain Morning Forecast

This morning and likely into the early afternoon will remain dry and quiet before our next weather maker brings widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Sky cover and moisture have been increasing this morning and will continue to do so today as a warm front sitting off the Louisiana coast begins lifting onshore throughout today. Moisture quickly rise above seasonal norms ahead of the rainfall today due to southwesterly aloft and southeasterly flow at the surface bringing in deep moisture. This paired with the possibility of training cells introduces the risk of excessive rainfall and subsequent flash flooding issues. WPC has highlighted our area in a slight risk of excessive rainfall through 7 AM Friday due to these conditions.

Diving into some forecast soundings shows the severe weather threat with this round of precipitation not looking the best. Instability is pretty concentrated to offshore areas south of the LA coast. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms for southern areas with widespread showers for northern areas is looking like the most likely scenario at this point. However, there is a non-zero chance of an isolated tornado forming south of the warm front due to low level instability and better shear. This first round of rain and isolated storms will persist through early Friday before we see a brief drying period ahead of the next round.

Friday night is expected to remain fairly dry before we see our next round of precipitation. Heading into Saturday as the surface low pressure moves northeast a subsequent surface warm front will lift into the area with the chance of showers and storms firing along that front. However, the better chance of showers and storms comes later with the approaching cold front Saturday afternoon through early Sunday. Showers and storms will likely move into western parts of the area late Saturday morning to around mid-day, then race eastward clearing the far eastern parts of the area sometime Saturday night.

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