11/23 – Rob’s Friday Morning “Holiday Shopping” Forecast

Overall forecast reasoning hasn’t changed much since the last forecast…with the biggest rain chances late afternoon through tonight as an upper disturbance races eastward through the Mississippi Valley. Surface low still looks to remain near the coast and south, which should keep any t-storms to a minimum…and so not much concern for severe weather. With the surface low remaining near the coast, heaviest rain should remain over the Gulf, so am generally calling for around a quarter inch to half inch of accumulation for most land areas.

Not much in the way of a front associated with this trough, so no significant cooling is anticipated. In fact, expect a warming trend through the weekend with highs well above normal by Sunday afternoon.

The next front will arrive Sunday evening, along and ahead of the front expect to see scattered showers. Cold air advection takes over behind the front, with lows Sunday night dropping 5 to 10 degrees lower than lows Saturday night. But the coldest nights still look to be Monday and Tuesday nights. Several model are still suggesting the possibility of freezing temperatures for one or both nights across roughly the northern half of the area. I have nudged forecast downward, but kept temperatures just above freezing for the time being as winds just off the surface will still be blowing at 15-20kts. We will need to continue monitoring the potential for freezing temperatures over the next couple of days.