11/23 – Brittany’s “Turkey Day Eve” Wednesday Evening Forecast

We’re on tap for a cool, quiet, and overall mild night, with the exception of morning fog. The quiet and dry conditions will be short lived though because beginning tomorrow afternoon, we’ll see scattered showers in the area throughout the afternoon and evening hours. Efficient rain makers and heavy rainfall will be possible tomorrow which is why our area is under a level 2 out of 4 potential threat for flash flooding. The rain will be courtesy of a warm front that will begin to lift north from the Gulf of Mexico. As the front lifts, global models and CAMS show a prefrontal trough, and subsequent meso low, developing across Western LA and becoming attached to the elevated 850mb warm front. This system will ride along the boundary which will be lifting to the northeast through the evening and overnight hours. This will be the focus for the heavy rainfall which could possibly lead to localized flash flooding.

Yet another warm front will move north across the region during the early morning hours on Saturday. Showers and some storms will form along the front, however the best potential for storms will be with the cold front that pushes through later in the afternoon or evening Saturday. Models runs have slowed down how quickly the front moves through here, and it looks as through the front won`t clear the MS Coast until late Saturday night. Given that this is still about 3 day out some of the timing could change, however some stronger thunderstorms will still be possible with this 2nd round of weather. About another inch or so of rain can be picked up with round.

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