11/22 – The Chief’s “Warmer Temperatures Ahead” Tuesday Morning Forecast
Another weak disturbance will move through the area today bringing chances for some light precipitation, mainly in the afternoon. Models are still showing quite a bit of dry air in the lower levels, so most precipitation likely will evaporate before reaching the surface but still decided to go with some low precip chances. Otherwise still looking partly to mostly cloudy with highs in the low to mid 60s. If we see clouds clear up more in some areas, highs could warm a couple extra degrees but did not stray much from the deterministic. Heading into Wednesday clouds are expected to clear out which will help the area easily warm up a few degrees. Highs are forecast in the lower 70s for much of the area under partly to mostly sunny skies.
Focus shifts to our west heading into Wednesday night as a vigorous disturbance starts building into the Rockies, which will eventually become our next weather-maker. Models seem to be in pretty good alignment with our next storm system moving in on Thursday. As a disturbance sweeps from the Rockies down into the Southern Plains, a closed low forms over northwest Texas Thursday evening and gradually moves east through Friday before lifting off to the northeast throughout the weekend. At this point it looks likely that we will stay in the warm sector, with a warm front drifting north over central/northern Mississippi. As this system pushes in, we will see strengthening southwesterly flow which helps to bring in deepening moisture. This brings the concern of some possible heavy rainfall. In terms of thunderstorms or severe weather potential, instability is not looking impressive but with some slight timing uncertainty still in place, we will have widespread rain with isolated thunderstorms.
Showers and isolated thunderstorms chances stick around through Friday and early Saturday as the upper low continues to move off to the northeast. Behind this system surface high pressure builds in, so conditions quickly dry out and slightly cool down with highs returning to the mid to upper 60s Sunday and Monday.