11/22 – Brittany’s “Lingering Clouds” Tuesday Night Forecast

We’re on tap for an overall quiet but cloudy night. Temperature wise, we’ve officially made our way back to seasonal average. Lows tonight will range from the low to mid 50’s and then highs tomorrow will be in the low 70’s.

Starting out early Thursday with mostly cloudy skies from a thick low-level cloud deck in place (and at multiple layers). Low- level, deepening return flow regime begins to set the stage ahead of a deepening shortwave trough closing off and diving south into the southern Plains. Amplifying downstream divergence coupled with intensifying isentropic ascent will eventually lead to widespread stratiform precipitation breaking out from the Red River of TX/OK NE into AR and Mid-MS valley region. Meanwhile for our area, most of Thursday morning will start off quiet with widespread clouds. To our south, a warm front will be approaching coastal SE LA around late morning into the early to mid-afternoon hours (as clearly depicted with model soundings illustrating a strong frontal inversion aloft). Eventual strengthening isentropic/deep moist ascent in conjunction with the boundary racing north will lead to a developing stratiform precipitation shield with thunderstorms. For now, greatest speed and directional shear remains along and north of the boundary, typical for a northward warm front leading to most convection north of the boundary to be elevated.

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