11/22 – Brittany’s “Light Showers” Tuesday Evening Forecast
Early this evening, light showers/drizzle continues to spread NE across the area in response to a weak mid-level impulse/shortwave trough riding along progressive SW flow aloft. Drier air will filter in at H7 aloft with some lingering patchy low clouds going into Wednesday morning, moreso across areas along and south of I-10/12 revealing partly cloud to mostly sunny skies across the area. Real nice day ahead on Wednesday with highs easily climbing into the lower 70`s. Staying quiet going into the overnight hours Wednesday night with as upper-level clouds build back into the region.
Starting out early Thursday with mostly cloudy skies from a thick low-level cloud deck in place (and at multiple layers). Low- level, deepening return flow regime begins to set the stage ahead of a deepening shortwave trough closing off and diving south into the southern Plains. Amplifying downstream divergence coupled with intensifying isentropic ascent will eventually lead to widespread stratiform precipitation breaking out from the Red River of TX/OK NE into AR and Mid-MS valley region. Meanwhile for our area, most of Thursday morning will start off quiet with widespread clouds. To our south, a warm front will be approaching coastal SE LA around late morning into the early to mid-afternoon hours (as clearly depicted with model soundings illustrating a strong frontal inversion aloft). Eventual strengthening isentropic/deep moist ascent in conjunction with the boundary racing north will lead to a developing stratiform precipitation shield with thunderstorms. For now, greatest speed and directional shear remains along and north of the boundary, typical for a northward warm front leading to most convection north of the boundary to be elevated.