11/21 – Brittany’s “Warming Trend” Monday Evening Forecast

Starting out with late this afternoon/evening, mid to upper-level moisture continues to build in from the west ahead of a deamplifying weak positive-tilt shortwave trough axis at H5 with progressive WSW flow aloft. Already have been seeing light long- range returns (virga) from KLIX earlier this afternoon which will continue to increase through early tonight. Noticed light rain on radar didn’t have a problem reaching the surface in a few spots earlier this morning but short-range CAMs continue to struggle resolving this mid-level precipitation reaching the surface given such a dry low-level layer/subsidence inversion in place.

Clouds will continue to increase through tonight as the aforementioned mid/upper-level moisture spreads east. However,the same weak trough to our west will weaken/stretch out leaving little in any supportive lift. Expecting any lingering light rain or drizzle to dissipate going into tonight with mid and upper-  level clouds persisting. No major changes on Tuesday with continued partly to mostly cloudy skies given a persistent stream of H7 and H2-H3 moisture in place. Highs will be a few degrees warmer reaching the mid 60`s in a few spots. Wednesday clouds will depart early revealing mostly clear skies to start the day. Could still have some patchy altocumulus due to lingering H7 moisture, but highs will easily climb into the upper 60`s to even lower 70`s for some. For highs, same lean with deterministic NBM towards the 50th to 75th meaning no modifications required and matches pretty much with a large majority of area guidance averages. Wednesday night, focus shifts back to our west at a digging longwave trough axis building into the Rockies, which will be our next weather maker coming in by late week, providing for a wet Thanksgiving.

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