11/2 – The Chief’s “Lovely Conditions Ahead” Wednesday Morning Forecast
The only real impact overnight with an area of weakness moving NE, was a deck of mid clouds over the region which should clear out slowly through the morning. The forecast for the rest of the workweek is going to be quiet and dominated by high pressure building over the Gulf and southeastern CONUS. This is in response to a large scale disturbance digging across the continental divide. The biggest difference today should be less cloud cover and that will likely allow highs to be rather close to what occurred yesterday or perhaps just a degree or two warmer with most of the region ranging from 78-81 today.
Heading into Thursday and Friday we should be a touch warmer as the high pressure builds across the region and temps climb a few degrees. Friday will bring more humid flow as high pressure will move to the east. Friday should easily be a day that we could get into the mid-80s. No rain anticipated at all in the short term but as we head into the weekend that is a good chance that we could see some beneficial rain but let’s not get our hopes up too much yet. Morning lows will be on the mild side and slightly above normal tomorrow morning but could be 5-10 degrees above normal Friday morning, with lows ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s.
This weekend, the upper level disturbance will dig southward down to around OK/TX and push the current high pressure eastward. It’s still a few days out but this may have a similar situation to last weekend where the primary convective mode will be another complex of t-storms but can’t rule out some strong to severe thunderstorms. Some of the model analogs have already been hinting at some low end severe potential. Moisture values will be rather elevated for this time of year so there is some potential for some heavy rain. The front is looking to be progressive so that could limit any large scale flooding issues. Biggest uncertainties still will be the timing of the front but definitely will be continued to be monitored as we get closer.
Once this system’s cold front is out of the area by late Sunday, ridging starts building back in the area. The chances of any precip should diminish for early next week with high temperatures right around average to slightly above average for this time of year.