11/18 – Rob Knight’s “Warming Temperatures Ahead” Morning Forecast
The forecast remains fairly benign through at least Thursday, when we will see a return of rain and another cold front. Today and tonight will feel very much like the last few days. We will remain under northwest flow aloft and LL temps will remain steady through at least today before slowly inching up overnight. Highs today should be fairly similar to yesterday as overnight Lows will be a touch warmer Tuesday morning with the air mass beginning to moderate.
At the surface a broad area of high pressure will take shape across the MS Valley and work east over the Appalachians and eventually centering over the southeastern CONUS by late Thursday. Both the high-pressure aloft and high pressure sliding over our area and to the east will lead to our atmosphere moderating with highs in the mid to possibly upper 70s by Thursday as the area will remain dry through this period.
Friday and through the weekend the forecast has some question marks however confidence is high that rain will return along with a cold front along with Sunday being dry and cool. The biggest forecast issue is timing right now. All models seem to have sped up some now …this could drive the cold front into the area as early as overnight Friday. These faster solutions suggest rain could be out of the area as early as Saturday morning around sunrise. Typically these large closed lows don’t move that fast and will hold on to rain through Saturday, tapering off west to east Saturday evening.