11/17 – Rob Knight’s “Cold & Cloudy Conditions” Thursday Morning Forecast

In the short term, a dry re-enforcing cold front with parent upper level disturbance will swing through the region later today. Ahead of this feature, WSW flow will continue to help upper level clouds stream into the region. Behind the aforementioned disturbance, cloud cover will begin to erode from NW to SE with time this afternoon and into the evening hours. Behind the front, a rather strong Canadian high pressure will settle into the region tonight. With the calmer winds and clear conditions, tonight will be a good radiational cooling night across the area. Cold conditions are expected, especially across the cooler areas north of the interstate. Some temperatures in the lowest spots may drop into the upper 20s.

Later in the period expect clouds to gradually increase during the day on Friday and especially Friday night. A more active southwesterly flow will develop over the region in time, which will help with cloud development. This added cloudiness will also help mitigate temperatures from cooling as much as the previous night.

Starting off on Saturday morning, the upper level pattern shows a broad disturbance extended from Canada across the Great Lakes and down south through the mid-Mississippi Valley. The base of this disturbance looks to stay north of the local area. At the same time, an upper low remains cut off near Arizona. A weak disturbance will ride NE across the northern Gulf coast this weekend, bringing with it a chance for some showers and reinforcement of colder airmass. As moisture begins to be drawn north Saturday morning, still looking at temps in the 30s and 40s. Latest setup suggests moisture and rainfall will remain south of I-12 corridor in the morning hours while temps are still quite cold. As the day progresses, temps warm and some of that shower activity spreads north. That activity will push south Saturday night and Sunday as colder air mass moves in. Expect unseasonably cold temps to remain in place over the weekend with highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s and 40s.

Warmer temperatures will return Thanksgiving week.

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